Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
